Growing rifts between PAS and Bersatu within the Perikatan Nasional coalition pose a significant threat to what Menteri Besar Sanusi Md Nor might otherwise achieve in Kedah's next state election, with political observers warning that intra-coalition friction could dilute the bloc's electoral potency across multiple constituencies.

Awang Azman Pawi, a respected political analyst, contends that the deteriorating relationship between the two largest components of Perikatan Nasional creates fertile ground for confusion among voters in the northern state. Rather than presenting a unified front with clear messaging, the coalition risks sending contradictory signals that could weaken its collective appeal, particularly in marginal seats where disciplined voter mobilisation typically proves decisive.

The PAS-Bersatu tension reflects broader ideological and strategic differences that have simmered beneath the coalition's surface since its formation. Bersatu, championing itself as a multiracial alternative, often finds itself at odds with PAS's approach to religious governance and its emphasis on bumiputera concerns. These philosophical gaps become especially pronounced during state-level campaigns, where local issues and community allegiances carry outsized weight compared to national narratives.

One scenario that concerns observers involves Bersatu declining to actively campaign in certain constituencies, either due to disagreements over candidate selection or resource allocation disputes. Such withdrawal of organisational support, even if not explicitly announced, would effectively undermine Perikatan's ground game in those areas. Voters rely heavily on grassroots engagement, door-to-door canvassing, and community events—efforts that require all coalition partners pulling in the same direction.

The risk of vote-splitting also haunts coalition dynamics. Should Bersatu members or supporters perceive unfair treatment—whether in terms of constituency allocations or perceived favouritism toward PAS—some may abstain from voting entirely or lodge protest votes. In a tight electoral contest, such marginal defections in multiple constituencies could collectively cost the bloc control of several seats that might otherwise fall comfortably within its grasp.

Sanusi's personal popularity and incumbency advantage remain substantial assets that could partially offset these structural weaknesses. The Menteri Besar has cultivated a reputation for competent administration and accessibility, traits that resonate with Kedah voters across demographic lines. However, personal popularity alone cannot guarantee the kind of landslide victory—or "clean sweep"—that represents a coalition's ultimate electoral aspiration. A dominant performance requires not only strong leadership but also seamless coordination among supporting parties.

Historical precedent offers instructive lessons. Previous Malaysian state elections have repeatedly demonstrated that coalition partners harbouring internal grievances tend to underperform relative to their combined potential. The 2018 Selangor election, for instance, saw Pakatan Harapan achieve a strong victory despite some internal tensions, but seat distribution and campaign coordination challenges illustrated how competing agendas within broader alliances can constrain outcomes. Perikatan Nasional faces similarly constraining dynamics in Kedah.

The timing of these frictions also matters considerably. If PAS and Bersatu disputes intensify during the critical months immediately preceding the election, the cumulative damage compounds. Media coverage of internal squabbles, even if relatively minor, chips away at voter confidence and raises doubts about coalition stability. Opposition parties actively exploit such divisions, framing the ruling alliance as fractious and untrustworthy—messaging that particularly resonates with swing voters seeking reassurance about governance competence.

Regional implications extend beyond Kedah's borders. As a strategically important northern state, Kedah's electoral outcome carries symbolic significance for Perikatan Nasional's broader viability as a governing coalition. A less-than-dominant performance attributable to internal discord could embolden critics within both PAS and Bersatu, potentially triggering more open criticism and further deterioration in coalition relations. Conversely, a strong showing despite existing tensions might temporarily paper over disagreements, creating space for reconciliation efforts.

For Bersatu, the challenge proves particularly acute. The party commands fewer parliamentary seats than PAS and relies on coalition support to maintain ministerial positions and government contracts. Yet accepting a subordinate role indefinitely breeds resentment among its leadership and grassroots members, who entered the coalition expecting meaningful influence over decision-making. Without clearer frameworks governing resource distribution and policy direction, Bersatu faces mounting internal pressure to reassert its independence or seek alternative alliances.

The path forward requires deliberate coalition management. Successful alliances typically establish clear protocols for resolving disputes, transparent mechanisms for candidate selection, and agreed-upon communication strategies that prevent miscommunication from destabilising the entire endeavour. Whether Perikatan Nasional's leadership possesses the political maturity and strategic discipline to implement such mechanisms remains uncertain, particularly given the ideological differences separating its component parties.

Ultimately, while Sanusi's personal strength and Perikatan's organisational advantages position the coalition to perform well in Kedah, the unresolved tensions within the alliance create genuine openings for opposition parties. In electoral contests where outcomes depend on winning multiple marginal seats, even modest erosion of voter support due to coalition dysfunction can shift the final tally. Analysts therefore anticipate a respectable victory for the ruling coalition, but one falling short of the comprehensive dominance that might otherwise have been achievable.