Eli Lilly Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast as Injectable GLP-1 Demand Holds Firm

Eli Lilly posted better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year revenue forecast, with its shares up 3.6%, as demand for its injectable GLP-1 treatments remained resilient.

Sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro rose 91% to US$9.94 billion, beating analysts' estimates, while obesity drug Zepbound brought in US$4.93 billion against expectations of US$4.73 billion. The two drugs accounted for 64.7% of Lilly's revenue in the quarter.

The trillion-dollar company now expects revenue of US$85 billion to US$87 billion for 2026, up from a previous forecast of US$82 billion to US$85 billion. Adjusted earnings came in at US$8.38 per share for the second quarter, well past the analysts' average estimate of US$6.01, according to data compiled by LSEG. Lilly trimmed the top end of its full-year profit forecast by 50 cents, citing charges related to business activity in the quarter, and now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of US$35.50 to US$36.50.

Chief financial officer Lucas Montarce said demand for injectable GLP-1 medicines remained strong, accounting for roughly three out of every four new patient starts, even as oral obesity pills entered the market. Executive vice-president Ilya Yuffa said about 80% of patients in the US government's Medicare obesity drug pilot, launched last month, chose to begin treatment with an injectable — despite many industry experts having expected patients to prefer pills for convenience.

Sales of Foundayo, Lilly's newly launched once-daily obesity pill, came in at US$98 million, short of the US$105.6 million average expectation. Yuffa said prescriptions in the last week of July were about double those a month earlier, with nearly one in four patients starting on the pill. Foundayo is under regulatory review in more than 40 markets, with a rollout across all major markets expected in 2027.

Rival Novo said sales of its Wegovy pill reached 3.22 billion Danish crowns (US$497 million), up 42.6% quarter-on-quarter but slightly below expectations. Its diabetes and obesity portfolio generated nearly 59.3 billion crowns (US$9.16 billion).

"The general consensus in the community is that tirzepatide is the better product… efficacy is what's key" for consumers, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said. The global obesity drug market reached US$66 billion in 2025, according to IQVIA.