Turbulent Tenure Expected for New Negeri Sembilan MB

Negeri Sembilan's new menteri besar Ismail is expected to face a turbulent tenure after several Umno assemblymen skipped his swearing-in ceremony on Sunday, analysts say.

Akademi Nusantara's Azmi Hassan said the absences signalled the risk of internal power-grabbing stemming from the unexpected nature of Ismail's appointment, noting that few had seen him as a frontrunner despite his decades of experience in governance.

"His name was never mentioned in discussions on who was the 'menteri besar designate' for Barisan Nasional, in working with Perikatan Nasional.

"There's no doubt Ismail will be facing a turbulent time as menteri besar. I'm sure the internal struggle will continue after this," he told FMT.

Asia Group associate vice-president Asrul Sani said the Juasseh assemblyman's position was unlikely to be shaken so soon, as both coalitions need to manage optics before the 16th general election (GE16).

"Ismail was appointed by the Yang Dipertuan Besar, and any potential challenger would need to respect the ruler's decision. Umno and PN also have a strong interest in showing voters that their new partnership can provide a stable government," he said.

Removing Ismail before the polls, he added, would make Umno appear divided and undermine the wider argument for Malay political cooperation. Any serious leadership challenge was more likely after GE16, though a power grab similar to Melaka in 2023 — when Ab Rauf Yusoh succeeded Sulaiman Ali — could not be ruled out longer term.

State Umno chief Jalaluddin Alias, previously tipped for the top post, was among those who missed the ceremony, saying he received the invitation only at 4.50am and had another event to attend.

DAP vice-chairman Syahredzan Johan urged all parties to respect the Yang Dipertuan Besar's discretion, while Negeri Sembilan Wawasan chief Badrul Hisham Shaharin said Ismail's position still depended on the support of the other 24 BN and PN assemblymen. BN holds 18 seats and PN seven, a two-thirds majority.

Both analysts said the exco line-up would be critical, requiring Umno, PAS and Wawasan backing. Azmi said Ismail, an assemblyman since 1999 and in state government since 2004, had the acumen to weather it, and could even find PH backing if the alternative were Jalaluddin.