Turbulent times ahead for new Negeri Sembilan MB, say analysts

The administration of Negeri Sembilan's new menteri besar, Ismail, is expected to face a turbulent period following his unexpected appointment, analysts said.

Akademi Nusantara analyst Azmi Hassan said the absence of several Umno assemblymen from Ismail's swearing-in ceremony signalled the risk of an internal power struggle.

He said many had not viewed Ismail as a frontrunner for the post despite his decades of experience in state administration.

"His name was not mentioned at all in discussions on who Barisan Nasional's menteri besar candidate would be in its cooperation with Perikatan Nasional.

"There is no doubt Ismail will face a turbulent period as menteri besar. I am confident the internal power struggle will continue after this," he told FMT.

Asia Group associate vice-president Asrul Sani said Ismail may not face instability in the immediate term, but begins his administration in a fragile political landscape.

The need to manage public perception ahead of GE16 means the Juasseh assemblyman's position is unlikely to be challenged soon, he said.

"Ismail was appointed by the Yang Dipertuan Besar and any party wishing to challenge him must respect his decision," he said, adding that removing Ismail before the general election would make Umno appear divided and weaken the broader argument for Malay political cooperation.

Asrul said any serious leadership challenge was more likely after GE16, and that a Melaka-style power shift — where Ab Rauf Yusoh replaced Sulaiman Ali in 2023 — could not be ruled out in the long run.

Ismail was sworn in on Sunday, but Negeri Sembilan Umno chief Jalaluddin Alias was among assemblymen who stayed away. Jalaluddin said he received the invitation only at 4.50am and had other commitments.

DAP vice-chairman Syahredzan Johan urged all parties to respect the ruler's discretionary powers, while Negeri Sembilan Wawasan chief Badrul Hisham Shaharin noted Ismail's position still depends on the support of the other 24 BN and PN assemblymen.

BN won 18 seats and PN seven, giving the alliance 25 seats — a two-thirds majority.

Both analysts said the exco line-up will determine the administration's strength. Azmi said Ismail, an assemblyman since 1999 and in the state government since 2004, has the acumen to navigate the challenges, and could even draw PH support if matters worsen.