Melaka polls: Seeds of division already emerging between BN and PN, says analyst
A UPM analyst says Melaka's contrasting electoral picture could strain the fledgling BN–PN cooperation over seats and post-election posts.
KUALA LUMPUR: Melaka's distinctly different political landscape — where Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pas each have grounds to claim the stronger hand — could sow the seeds of division even though cooperation between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) has only just begun to take shape.
Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) senior lecturer Dr Nur Ayuni Mohd Isa said that while the tie-up delivered big BN wins in Johor and Negeri Sembilan recently, both sides would face issues such as seat allocation in the next general election and the distribution of posts after a victory, which could breed mutual dissatisfaction.
She said Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang's remark that the form of BN–PN understanding in Melaka may differ from the formula used in Johor and Negeri Sembilan could be read as an early negotiating signal that Pas and PN do not want to be merely a junior partner to BN.
"Hadi has a basis for raising this. BN now holds 20 of the 28 Melaka state seats and still has a two-thirds majority, but the coalition failed to win even one of Melaka's six parliamentary seats in GE15," she said today.
In GE15, PN won Masjid Tanah, Tangga Batu and Jasin, while Pakatan Harapan took Alor Gajah, Hang Tuah Jaya and Kota Melaka.
This, she said, created two conflicting measures of strength. Umno could argue it is stronger by virtue of controlling the state government, the Chief Minister's post and a large state assembly majority, while Pas and PN could argue that the more recent result — GE15 in 2022 — showed BN had lost real command among Melaka voters.
In Negeri Sembilan, she noted, BN emerged as the largest component with 18 seats, PN seven and PH 11, so Pas accepted BN leading the state government with exco posts allocated according to seats won.
"This is where the seeds of division will begin. No formula can fully satisfy both sides. The incumbency formula favours Umno because BN has 20 assemblymen. The latest-result formula favours PN. A winnability formula could require Umno incumbents to surrender seats to Pas or Wawasan, triggering division-level resistance and internal sabotage," she said.
Melaka BN chairman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh has said the coalition is open to working with any party through a "BN Plus" formula, but talks would not necessarily lead to agreement as it depends on each party's strength.
Nur Ayuni added that Melaka is a microcosm of the national seat-sharing problem, with Pas and PN dominant in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis, while Umno is unlikely to hand over traditional seats in Pahang, Johor and other states. – UTUSAN
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